Election result

Labour 50 (40.7 %)
National 49 ( 39.6 %)
NZ First 7 ( 5.8%)
Greens 6 (5.1%)
Maori Party 4 (2 % - 4 electorate seats).
United Future 3 (2.7%)
Act 2 (1.5%)
Progressives 1 (1.2%)
TOTAL 122

It could be a 'last cab off the rank' Labour Government - without the Greens. If that doesnt work, and National can't cobble up a coalition, we`ll be back at the polling booth, as we`ll have a hung Parliament. I predict that even if Helen Clark can cobble together a coaltion, it wil be so unstable it won't last. If the specials don't change things, we`ll have another election and the vote will swing further to the right.

National have 21,000 fewer votes than Labour with specials to come. However National has done well in doubling its vote, but the Maori Party overhang hasn't assisted National.

I picked United to get three seats and the Maori Party four. That happened. I think the role of the Maori Party will be vitally important. When Labour discusses coalition Government with the Maori Party, the Foreshore and Seabed Act would be a sticking point, and the Maori seats will have to stay.

Coalition options:
I am going to consider five coalition options:
1.Labour/ Maori/Progressives, and confidence and supply with NZF = 61 seats
2.Labour/Progressives/Green, and confidence and supply with Maori = 61 seats
3.Labour/United Future/Progressives - confidence and supply Maori = 61 seats
4.National/UF/Act and confidence and supply with Maori = 61 seats
5 Labour/Maori/NZ First and Progressives - confidence and supply with United Future = 62 seats

other options, with a majority:
1. Labour Progressives/United Future/Greens - confidence and supply Maori party and the Greens outside cabinet
2. Labour/Progressives/Greens/Maori - and confidence and supply with United Future.
3. National/United Future/Maori and confidence and supply from Act/NZ First - unlikey to survive as it will be impossible to get legislation through the House.

These types of coalition will not last three years - and there are 200 000 special votes to come. Ten percent of the vote is still to be counted. The only way the Right can get a majority is if National get more special votes than the left.
If the Greens get fewer than 4.55% of the specials they are out of Parliament. If NZ First loses a seat on the specials, and the Greens gain one - as is likely - option 2 is the only option with a majority, given that Winston Peters has stated that he will not go into coalition at all, nor will he offer confidence and supply to a Government with the Greens and Act, and United Future will not go into Cabinet with the Greens. However, WInston may change his mind and support a Government with Act or the Greens on cinfidence and supply, and Peter Dunne could well have more substantial discussions with National.

After specials are counted, if NZ First lose one, the Greens and National gain one each (which means that Nandor will get back in Parliament) the left and the right will still be on level pegging. We could end up with a hung Parliament and the wasted vote wont help as Labour and National are likely to get pretty much the same percentage of that vote.

If it is true that the Maori Party would need 1300 more votes to lose one of its overhang seats, that would put Nat/NZF/UF in front. Alternatively National were to get 16,000 more specials than Labour would also knock off a overhang seats.

It's going to be interesting.

Now that Act are in Parliament I look forward to seeing the media coverage of Keith Locke running naked down Queen Street, as he promised he would do if Rodney won his Epsom seat. Interesting that just 70% of eligible voters voted in Epsom.

I look forward to an apology from TV1 for not including United Future in the profile of party venues on its coverage early last night, given that it was polling as the fouth highest party up to 8:30pm. Good to seethe media bias with the political editors or TV1 and TV3 dispatched to Labour HQ.

Interesting that Ohariau Belment- Peter Dunnes seat - almost had three of its candidates in Parliament - Heather Roy off the list and Labour's Chauvel - like the Green's Nandor Tanczos - missed out on a list place by one. Noteably, Labour has one less seat compared to 2002.

Go to Farrars blog to see a list of new MP"s and a list of the MP's who are dusting off their CV's because they`ll be job hunting. Of course others such as Mark Peck and Deborah Coddington are retiring.