If you want a change of Government, do not vote Green

The left is getting worried. Everyone knows that if the Greens don't get over 5 percent, National will form the next Government if Winston Peters doesn’t have a king maker role. The coalition partner fight is between the Greens and NZ First. One of these parties will be in the next coalition Government on current polling. That’s because voters on the right are also returning to National to ensure that if Labour loses some votes to the Greens, National will have a greater share of the Right vote. Its almost like a two horse race and both sides don’t want Winston to be king maker.

Voters are worried that the Greens will not get past the 5 percent threshold so some who want to vote Green are shifting their list vote to Labour so that at least their vote will count towards a Labour Government. Labours student policy has assisted in this. Prime Minister Helen Clark knows this and this is why she is campaigning with Greens co-leader Jeannette Fitzsimons - to get the Green polling to 5 percent so she doesn’t have to rely on NZ First to form a Government.

A recent poll put the Greens at 3 percent. A new Herald on Sunday Digi- Poll put them on 4 percent. Labour (45 percent), National (38 percent), and NZ First (7 percent) are the only parties to poll above the threshold.

Maori Party voters are increasingly voting Labour and some United Future voters are switching to National. New Zealand First voters, as a group, are a confused bunch as Winston has not revealed his preferred coalition partner. If The Greens and Labour buddy up for much longer, expect National to poll higher next time - and Labour to poll lower.