Fairfax poll puts National 5% ahead - but whats to come?

Like I predicted, NZ First ( 8%) and Labour (37%) have gone down in the latest Fairfax poll, and National (42 %) has gone up. If Labour drops a couple of percentage points further to National on election day, but keeps all its electorate seats, every list vote for Labour will be a wasted vote, because the party will only get electorate seats.

I'm sure that will be a world first - a government calling a MMP election and not getting any party votes that count. It can happen, but it is unlikely, of course. And of course if Labour drops even further and all electorate seats are kept, Labour will contribute to an overhang.

According to the poll, most in the Maori seats intend to list vote Labour, in fact more intend to list vote Labour than NZ First and the Maori Party combined. Most who intend to list vote NZ First and the Maori Parties favour a coalition with Labour. Yet National is the only party that can form a two party coalition and have a majority, as National/NZ First will have 62 seats and a majority even if the Maori Party gets four electorate seats. Labour needs NZ First and the Greens, or all of Maori/Progressive/United.

On current polling, as Farrar notes, if Labour retained all its current electorate seats, they would have only two list MPs - Cullen and Wilson. Give the party a two percent drop and Labour has no list seats.

Helen Clark is urging Maori to vote Labour on the list as she considers that not to have Labour Maori members of Parliament could fundamentally weaken Labour's chances of going back into Government. In other words, if more Maori voters switch from Labour to the Maori Party and a few more NZ First voters who support National do the same, Labour will have no list MP's.

This will also mean that every list vote for the Maori Party and Labour may end up being a wasted vote as all MPs will get in through electorate seats.

Although most voters for Maori MP's list-vote Labour, if they split vote and vote for the Maori MP's as well this will result in an overhang. An overhang means a Government has to have more seats to get a majority - and who is to say that the Maori party will not support National. If all Maori seats are held by the Maori Party we could be looking at a NZ First/Maori/National Government as the alternative will be unstable. I can't imagine a Labour Government with NZ First and the Greens. But I do think the greens polling will rise on election day.