lovers of Winston more than lovers of Labour

Labour and National are neck and neck in the latest Fairfax/AC Nelson Poll - at 40% and 38% respectively, and with a margin of error of 3 % both parties know the Labour lead means nothing. National has increased two percent - and NZ First lost two percent - compared to the poll the other day.

What is more concerning is that NZ First is on 9 percent and Winston will choose who is the Government if this poll translates to the Real Poll. The other day Winston had 11 percent.

I'm wondering why so many vote Winston. They don't vote NZ First, they vote Winston. Lots of Catholics vote Winston. Particularly Catholics over 50 - which is, I suppose, most of them. Why don’t they vote the Destiny Party. Destiny won't go into coalition with Labour even if God tells it to.

You may remember a while back the Catholic leaders sent a strong message to vote out those who supported the Civil Union Bill. All Labour's List MP's supported the bill and many of the electorate MP's did also. Perhaps some of these Catholics have deserted Labour for Winston. Then gone to National. They certainly wouldn’t vote Greens. Yet if NZ First voters vote Winston as a protest to Labour, they may well be voting for something they don't want, as I believe that Winston has a high chance of picking Labour as a coalition partner if he has to make the choice. Other likely minor parties have stated their preferences: The only one who is not so clear cut is Peter Dunne, who says he will support the party with the highest vote. Will he?

If Winston has a choice between Labour and National, with Labour having the highest vote by a few percentage points, if National and United Future can cobble up a coalition with NZ First, will Peter Dunne say no to that?