Election date 30 July

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I pick an election date in July - probably 30 July. It’s exactly full term. The Budget will be over. The Government will announce the election date after the budget.

The date is the furtherest possbile date after the Lion's series and before the other tests.

It's the only date possible three weeks after a rugby game - and Queens Birthday has been factored into the prediction.

It's not during school holidays.

It won't be too cold for Labour and Green supporters to go out and vote, although NZ First supporters may have to wrap up warm and the Maori Party will have to work hard at organising its hui.

The prospective disappointment of losing to the Lions will be over.

It is preferable to a September election as we tend to be more grumpy when we lose to southern hemisphere teams than northern hemisphere teams - especially at home - and the Government doesn’t want to take that risk.

Also the last possible date is the first week of the school holidays. Having an election on a test date (or the weekend after) or during the school holidays is not wise.

Labour and National are both increasing in the last poll, but September election will give time for the minor parties to catch up. Helen Clark insists she`ll go a full term and doesn’t want to be seen lying again after the Doone afair. July 30 is full term.

There are fewer rugby tests in June/July than in August/September meaning people will be more likely to take in election coverage.

Of course I could be wrong :-) - I could be a week out.

Here are the possible dates of the election (thanks to Tim Selwyn)

4 June.... (Queen's Birthday Weekend)
11 June... (Maori v. Lions)
18 June... (Otago v. Lions)
25 June...
2 July..... (NZ v. Lions)
9 July..... (NZ v. Lions)
16 July....
23 July....
30 July.(3 years after last election)
6 August...(NZ v. SA, Capetown)
13 August..(NZ v. Aust, Sydney)
20 August..
27 August..(NZ v. SA)
3 Sept (NZ v. Aust)
10 Sept
17 Sept
24 Sept (first weekend of school holidays)