Monday, August 16, 2004

Latest ON- CB poll results

Lab - 44 (+5)
Nat - 40 (-3)
NZF - 4 (-1)
Grn - 4 (-1)
ACT - 2 (-1)
UF - 2 (--)
MP - 3 (+1)

The latest One News Colmar Brunton Poll results puts Labour in front again. The reason Don Brash may be alarmed is that historically, One News - Colmar Brunton Polls have traditionally overemphasised National's support, as what happened with the poll after Don Brash's Orewa speech. Since that Feburary Poll, National is down four - but Labour is up a whopping 11.

This indicates that overall, the minor parties are losing support to Labour. Overall National has not lost as much support as many people would have you believe.

However, this morning on the radio Brash mentioned the July NBR-Phillips Fox poll - which put National three points clear of Labour. Obviously politicians have their favourite polls.

Some One News-Colmar Brunton polls have shown National with a commanding lead over Labour of ten or more points, with National leader Dr Brash within a statistical stutter of Helen Clark as the prime minister of choice, sometimes separated by only one point, according to the NBR.

Maybe that’s because NZ First and the Greens usually pass the 5 percent threshold - as they did in the July poll. This one is different. No minor party polled past 4 percent.

At this rate, the only way a minor party will get into Parliament after the election is if they gain back the support lost to Labour - or get an electorate seat. The Progressives, United Future and the Maori Party could well do that.

Labour is highly unlikely to abolish the Maori seats, is it? But if it delivers more speeches like Tamihere's "red-blooded heterosexual male" speech, that may win them even more votes than anything they say on the Foreshore and Seabed legislation. And if it Tamihere that delivers it, it may even push him up in the race for preferred Prime Minister. He has now registered in the polls.

Don Brash needs to say a bit more, rather than limiting his effect to periodic speeches. And what's Rodney Hide doing lately? Too busy attending the Yoof Parliament and the welfare symposium, I suppose.

No comments: