Saturday, September 29, 2007

Minor parties starting to get support in polls


Sounds like I was right when I said the next poll would see the minor parties starting to poll. I think the Greens will poll higher than their high of 7.2 percent before the election if they get their act together and should National roll out more contentious policies. Freedom of expression - ala the Electoral Finance Bill - is important to many people. But it is not as important as their wallet. They would be more likely to vote against higher student fees( update National has just announced that they`ll increase fees)and higher doctors visits and will either go back to Labour or onto the Greens. At the moment, National supporters don't know what they are dealing with but what many do know is that they don't want to go back to a world of benefit cuts and the Employment Contracts Act.

If there is uncertainty or disagreement about National's policies, National will slip in the polls more than Labour increases and that's exactly what has happened this time.

2 comments:

Anonymous said...

Hi Dave
you said
"National supporters don't know what they are dealing with but what many do know is that they don't want to go back to a world of benefit cuts and the Employment Contracts Act".

It's well put and Key should think long and hard before opening his mouth.
We do need to move people off of the benefit though.

However I remember in Shipley's day when National sacked every Fireman in the country and expected them to apply for their Jobs as part of their drive to retrench the sector.
Through that Insurance toady guy Espinal or something.

I am not a Labour supporter but that was so wrong and if Key doesn't watch it he will find himself dredging up memories like that for ordinary Kiwis like me.

I want Clark, H2 and Cullen out and the Teflon three, Maharey, Mallard and Goff with her.
We also don't need lame ducks like King, Hodgson and Dyson in charge of important ministries either.

MikeNZ

Sanctuary said...

National's huge polling seems incredibly soft, a large part of current National support seems to me to be driven by general ennui, wanting change for changes sake, and a consolidation of the "we hate the government" vote. Given that reaction to National's policy releases so far has been so negative, and that are a lot of people are seeking change for changes sake, their is a distinct possibly that voters, frightened by National but unwilling to vote Labour, will flow out from National to the third parties. I am not sure if Winston has the old fire in the belly - he hasn't been the same since he lost Tauranga - but he may get NZF over the line. National may yet lose plenty of voters on its right to ACT and the Conservative Christians could yet take 3-4% off National. All in all, given that Labour can work easily with the Greens and the MP, 2008 isn't in the bag for National yet.