How can Labour win?
I've said it before and I`ll say it again: I give Labour no show in the next election. I'm pretty good at picking elections. I've covered at least three for the media. Last election I picked not only the date but the outcome, including the number of Maori Party seats. I also picked the number of Maori seats too :-).
How ever the lead up to the election is diferent. A year out there is a clear alternative at the same time that the Government is making more of a mess of things than they did before the last two, if not three elections. Labour does not have a clue what to do and the public is beginning to believe not only that, but believe that John Key, despite his lack of announced policies, may have more ideas and more vision - even if he doesn't. The only way Labour can possibly be in Government after the election is the demotion of the tired trio of Cullen, Maharey, and Hodgson from the front bench - replaced by Laban, Cunliffe and Jones along with a wider reshuffle.
Helen Clark won't do that. I would pick a National win, with the Greens getting over the 5%, UnitedFuture getting about the same as the Progressives and Destiny, NZ First and the Maori Party doing about the same or a little better as the last election and ACT doing a lot better.
Time for a change.Even if that change is more of the same with a little more vision before they conk out.