Final election result

The final election result is out and Nandor didn’t get in. The Greens needed 1246 more votes to get a extra seat. If some of the 5000 plus people who voted for Aotearoa Legalise Cannabis Party (where Nandor originally stood as a candidate, and drove the canna-bus) voted Green, Nandor would have been back. Perhaps the Greens should have put him higher on the list.

Here's the result:
Labour: 50 seats
National: 48 seats
NZ First: 7 seats
Greens: 6 seats
Maori Party: 4 seats
United: 3 seats
Act: 2 seats
Progressives: 1 seat

If it wasn't for MMP, both NZ First and the Greens would be out of Parliament and it would have been a National Government by a larger majority than any government formed next week.

That is why I would prefer to see a role for United Future and the Maori Party over the Greens and NZ First. Clearly voters dont want just the party, they also want those in the party to represent them.

The Maori Party has increased its vote and reduced the overhang by one, meaning National's Katrina Shanks loses her seat. Had the Maori Party not done so well, that seat would have been lost to Labour - or even the Greens.

So lets look at likely coalitions. An LPG Government gets 57 seats, a National United Act NZ First Government gets 60 seats. Neither has a majority.

An LPG Government with confidence and supply from the Maori Party gets 61 seats. That’s a majority. A Labour Progressives government with Confidence and supply from the Greens is 57 seats. A Labour Progressive Government needs NZ First or the Greens to pass legislation. It does not need United Future, but it would be handy if United Future got a confidence and supply agreement.

A Labour Progressive Government with confidence and supply with United Future looks like the most stable form of Labour-led Government, provided NZ First and the Maori Party are under control. The Government needs either the Greens or the Maori Party to pass laws. Not a good prospect for stable government.

The Greens just add instability in the eyes of the majority of the NZ public and perhaps Helen Clark is starting to realise that.

It looks like Clark will announce a Labour Progressive Government. It will be interesting to see where all the parties fit into this.

Perhaps the Government will be Labour Progressive with the Maori party on co-operation agreement and United Future on confidence and supply and NZ First agreeing to abstain on confidence and supply in return for some policy gains.

UPDATE
of course the MSM would like to suggest otherwise favouring the Greens and seing United Future out of the picture altogether.