Coalition blues

The Dominion Post today reports that the Prime Minister is poised to form a Government. In other words Labour and Progressive, which is what I've said all along.

United Future, NZ First and The Greens were all offered cabinet posts if they were to be in Government together. That’s not going to happen. NZ First doesn't like the Greens, United Future don’t like NZ First, and the Greens could work with Peter Dunne but would rather not. Dunne would rather work with Don Brash. Don Brash would rather not work with NZ First. The Greens will work with anyone as long as they have their way.

Nobody trusts the Maori Party to contribute to stable Government. The Maori Party wants the Foreshore and Seabed Act changed. That won't happen under a National or Labour Government. National, because NZ First would be needed to overturn it and they are a signatory.

And NZ First is the key party in this whole thing.

If Helen Clark is able to cobble up some sort of Government it most likely be one with the Progressives, with an agreement with NZ First, United Future, the Greens and the Maori Party. In that order. Greens may even get confidence and supply given that NZ First wants to abstain.

Could it be that we have a caretaker government when Parliament sits in November. Or will it be a mish-mash of agreements where NZ First and United Future support the Government on one set of policies and the Greens and Maori Party support the Government on others. Conscience votes will be a lot of fun. Perhaps an MP in a minor party will get to be the speaker.

Meanwhile the country will be waiting until the PM calls an election.