Election 05:The centre right vote

On Agenda this morning, Michelle Boag claimed the SST poll tomorrow has National at a 5 percent lead. Polling will have to improve three weeks out from an election as perceptions are everything. National is polling nine points behind Labour in the most recent and useless NBR poll, half of which was taken before Nationals tax announcements, half after.

National's tactics do not seem to be working. Gordon King recently pointed out that the centre right vote hasn’t increased since the last election.Labour sees its campaign as a centre left campaign, accommodating like minded party leader, National is not campaigning with like-minded coalition partners as its main partner is polling poorly. Note that when Helen Clark jointly campaigned with the Greens, the latter party was at 3 percent. Both the Greens and Labours polling have subsequently increased, National should take that lesson on board.

National's natural coalition partner, ACT, is polling below 5 percent so it’s a bit of a lottery as to who will be in a National led coalition. That is why National strategists are not asking National voters to Party vote National and electorate vote ACT - even in Epsom. National's Epsom candidate, Richard Worth, will be in Parliament after the election either off the list or the electorate vote, whereas Epsom's ACT candidate, Rodney Hide, needs to win his seat to get into Parliament to support National. Some campaigners in Epsom are even suggesting that Labour voters strategically list vote National to bump up the numbers to keep Hide - and ACT - out.

However nobody seems to have mentioned Wellington Central. NZ First is not standing a candidate in for Wellington Central Both Mark Blumsky and Marian Hobbs should get in off the lists, co campaigning is about the electorate vote. ACT's Franks, however, has to either rely on Hide winning his seat or people - perhaps even Christians - voting ACT, as mot enough centre right voters will vote for Franks to ensure a centre right coalition.

Franks even put out a letter and pamphlet stating "Vote Act because you are a Christian". It’s even richer than saying "vote Labour because you are gay". Name the Christians in ACT, someone? You can count them on one finger, if that. The last one withdrew his nomination There's actually more bloggers standing as candidates for ACT: Rodney Hide, Gavin Middleton, Andrew Falloon, and Nigel Kearney.

But if Act does not get in, National has run out of options. United Future will get into Parliament, with three seats should they get 2.5 percent of the vote. The Maori Party should get at least four seats, rendering list votes useless, so why don’t all Maori voters who want a centre right Government list vote National and party vote Maori? Maoroi voters are a funny bunch. They want to support the Maori party but are not sure why, in terms of Government formation. Collectively, NZ First voters are no better.

In the latest Herald Digi poll, nearly one in five NZ First supporters do not want NZ First to be part of the next Government. Also, if Labour's only choice was to go into Government with NZ first, more than 40 percent would rather that they didn't. People like Jordan Carter, for example.

Lets see what tomorrows poll brings.