Election 05:Maori party fading -National ahead?

It should be interesting come September 18, let alone September 17, The election is wide open. The election of Parliament should be just as interesting as government formation. NZ First is not saying which way it will jump, the Maori Party doesn't want to be in Government, Labour doesn't want NZ First unless it has to have it, whereas United Future will talk with the party with the most seats. However it refuses to be in Cabinet with the Greens. The Progressives are merely Labour in drag, National is running out of options and Act probably won't be there at all.

The latest SST poll shows Labour with a one percent lead, and National gaining six percent lead after the tax cuts announcement. The Greens have slipped back to 5 percent after the tax cuts. So are some swinging Labour voters who voted Greens while they were under 5 percent now not coming back to Labour, but voting National?

The latest One News/Colmar Brunton Poll shows the Maori Party seat of Te Tai Tokorau is polling extremely close. Hone Harewara (39 percent) is just ahead of Dover Samuels (38 percent), whereas earlier Harawira was polling twice as well. In Te Tai Tonga, Labour is now out in front, but how accurate are these Marae Digi- polls anyway?

As some Maori seem to believe that the Maori Party will get a swag of electorate seats, they party vote Labour. Why would they vote National if it wants to abolish the Maori seats? National should have shut up on that one. The Maori party wont be in Government anyway, as it is going alone, and will treat each bill on an individual basis.

Lets wait until tonight's TVNZ's poll, which was taken after National's tax announcement. That will give a clearer picture. The Greens may be down to 5 percent overall, as some recent Greens voters go back to Labour - we`ll see.

UPDATE Itdoesn't give a clear picture actually, Labour a few points ahead, NZ First so low (seven seats) that even Susan Baragwanath won't get in if this poll translates to polling day. The Greens( eight seats) score their best poll (7%)in two years. Is the NZ First vote collapsing? Have the Greens peaked? What is clear is the left is still stronger than the right. Will Don Brash notice that or will he plug away without a coalition partner-in-waiting.

I wonder what will happen if National get 3 percent more than Labour - and the Greens get more than NZ First, say as per this poll, come September 17. The Left will have 58 (Labour 48, Progressives one, Greens nine) and the Right will have 62 (National 53, UF two, NZ First seven). I can't imagine Winston sitting around a cabinet table with the Greens. The Maori Party is not interested in Government, but if it gets four or five seats, life could be very interesting.