Many National supporters want Winston as PM over Brash

According to the SST poll today, (not online) the Maori Party could have five seats and will be in Government in a majority coalition. However I do not think the Government will risk that, and could be a minority coalition with NZ First and possibly the Progressives after the election.

Based on this poll that Government could be headed by either Helen Clark, Don Brash, or Winston Peters. Winston will be kingmaker. His decision could determine the future of the Progressive party. It could also determine the fate of Don Brash as leader if this poll has any merit.

Asked about Mr Peters leading a coalition with National, 45.7 per cent of poll respondents believed it would be better than Dr Brash leading it; 38.8 per cent thought it would be worse; and 15.5 per cent didn't know or refused to answer.

Of the National supporters who answered the question, 38.8 per cent believed it would be better than Dr Brash leading it and 52.3 per cent thought it would be worse

A third of National supporters polled want Winston to be Prime Minister. Scary. National supporters do not have much faith in their leader. Imagine if a third of Labour supporters wanted Winston to be Prime Minister in a Labour coalition. It will never happen.

UPDATE

National has just released its party list. Based on the SST poll, National gets 45 seats, and will more than double its representation in Parliament. MP's include Tim Groser (13), Tau Henare (29), and Mark Blumsky (36). Alan Peachey (30) may well get elected in Tamaki.

The SST Poll had Labour 40 percent, National 36, NZ First 10, Greens 6, Act 3, UFNZ 2, and Maori and Progressives 1 percent each. We assume that the Maori Party will win several seats - possibly 5, and that Dunne and Anderton will get in and take a few with them. Based on the poll, Act will be out so its vote will be wasted and redistributed and the bottom four parties in Parliament get the same list percentage vote as NZ First, creating an overhang due to the Maori Party getting more seats than its list vote.