Friday, February 18, 2005

how the "wasted vote" could be a vote for the Government



I've always wanted to do a bit of a post on the wasted vote, given that this year is another MMP election year.

Last election, 4.9 percent of the vote - 99,388 votes - was "wasted", that is, the party votes went to parties such as the Alliance and Christian Heritage, but these parties could not get 5 percent of the vote or an elected member, and thus did not gain representation. The vote actually went to other parties instead.

Many voters are still unaware that the party vote is the most crucial under MMP.

In order to utilise the wasted party vote, the 4.9 percent was reallocated to each party based on their party vote. As Labour got the highest vote it gained three extra MP's - or 2.02 percent of the vote. They were Helen Duncan, Dave Hereora, and Ashraf Chaudhary. National got two extra - Pansy Wong and Katherine Rich as it got 1.08 percent of the vote

New Zealand First got one - Brent Catchpole ( 0.54 per cent) and Mike Ward got in for the Greens as a result of its reallocation of the wasted vote (0.34 percent).

Most of the MP's who gained representation via the wasted vote voted for Civil Unions and the Prostitution Bill. Had Labour got about 500 fewer votes, Ashraf Choudhary wouldn’t have been an MP and the Prostitution Bill may not have been passed.

You may even be able to thank the CHP for its assistance in passing the Prostitution Bill and perhaps the Civil Union Bill.

That's because the party that achieved the most wasted votes was the Christian Heritage Party, with 1.35 percent of the vote, or 27,492 votes. Many of the voters were Christians who may have toyed with voting for United Future, but decided on the CHP instead. Had United Future gained an additional 502 of these votes at the last election, the party would have got an extra MP and would have been the fourth biggest party in Parliament. Instead some of these CHP voters actually voted for Labour by default and increased its list.

You`d expect that most CHP voters would not be likely to vote for Labour or the Greens - but in reality that is exactly what some of them did - and most didn’t even realise it at the time as they didn't understand MMP. Labour's share of the wasted vote was higher than the total vote of each party who recieved wasted votes at the ballot box.

Due to the reallocation of the wasted vote, the parties more likely to benefit are National and Labour.

If you don’t want to vote for National or Labour at the next election, don’t vote for parties that will not be likely to get five percent or an elected MP. A protest vote for a "wasted vote" party may come back to bite you on the bum, if enough of you do it.

The main parties to avoid are Destiny, the CHP, the Alliance, possibly ACT, and Aotearoa Legalise Cannabis party. The rest of the wasted vote parties won't get more than 1 percent anyway so any reallocation will be minimal. United Future, the Maori Party and the Progressives are unlikely to get five percent, but are likely to get an elected MP, and representation in Parliament.

2 comments:

Anonymous said...

Thankyou for that. I had no idea, having not yet voted under MMP, as it all came in while I was overseas.

looke

Nigel Kearney said...

Surely it's just an accident that the two National MPs who benefitted from the wasted votes happened to be social liberals.

And I don't agree that the Greens have any better chance than ACT of being in Parliament after the next election. But on current polling I can see why you might think that.